‘Reasons to be optimistic’ for 2024 says investment expert in science park sit-down with Hants firms

Hampshire business leaders were joined by global investment expert Janet Mui earlier this month for a seminar outlining the UK’s economic prospects.

Head of market analysis at wealth manager RBC Brewin Dolphin and an award-winning industry commentator, Janet sat down with guests at University of Southampton Science Park for a breakfast briefing hosted by HWB Chartered Accountants.

“From what I see in the financial markets there are reasons to be optimistic”, she began.

“The fact that inflation appears to have peaked removes huge uncertainty. It’s been coming down in tandem in the US, UK and Eurozone.

“The question is whether or not this will be a sustainable trend in the UK, which has seen the highest inflation rate of all advanced western countries.

“Inflation is the main issue that suppresses growth. It’s now expected to get closer to the Bank of England target of two per cent, even though the journey could be bumpy.

“In turn, financial markets expect two or three interest rate cuts in the UK in the second half of this year.

“Data suggests people are less gloomy. Even though we’re in a technical recession, it may already be over.

“The Office for National Statistics has a history of upward revision of past data. It’s certainly not a deep, prolonged recession.

“Although confidence can fluctuate, people are relieved inflation is down. It seems we’re heading in the right direction with consumer confidence less negative than it has been.”

And with the country potentially headed for a general election this year, Janet added: “There’s limited headroom for either party to pursue any bold plans for the economy.

“UK public debt is at 96.5 per cent of GDP, and under current government plans, tax revenue is forecast to rise to 37.7 per cent of GDP by 2027-28 – the highest level of tax ever seen in the UK.

“Taking all factors into consideration, I strongly advise anyone in a business to keep a close eye on what’s happening with inflation and interest rates and take advice ahead of investment decisions.”

Guests were asked both before and after Janet’s presentation what factors they most fear will harm the UK economy.

From left – James Flood, director at HWB; Janet Mui; Kirsty Simpson, chartered financial planner at RBC Brewin Dolphin; and Michaela Johns, director at HWB

Responses highlighted skills gaps, debt levels, low productivity, labour market pressures, global events and the impact of the tax burden.

Among the audience were senior managers and directors from sectors including construction, recruitment, property, insolvency services, management consultancy, workplace equipment supply and education.

Michaela Johns, director at HWB, said: “Janet gave us some fascinating insight into the key macro-economic trends and prospects we can expect for the rest of 2024 and how that may impact the activities of businesses across the country including those firms within our client base.

“It’s going to be a pivotal few months as people look to understand the latest inflationary trends and interest rate movements and how they affect consumer spending, wage growth, property prices, mortgage rates and approvals, productivity and investment.”

• hwb-accountants.com

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